As China Dawns, Must Korea Dim?
At last weekend's Asean Plus Three summit in Cebu, Philippines, the spotlight was firmly on China. On the streets from the airport to the hotel where China's Premier Wen Jiabao was staying were hung huge posters of the Chinese leader, his image a clear signifier of his country's influence in the region.
China's political influence in Southeast Asia is equaled by it financial clout in the region. The country lent US$750 million to ASEAN nations just last year, and over the next three years will provide the Philippines alone with $6 billion in loans. Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo made her feelings clear, saying, “We are happy to have China as our big brother in this region.”
It's not just ASEAN that is sharing such sentiments. Last year, China hosted on its own soil separate conferences with Middle Eastern, Central Asian, and African nations, drawing scores of nation leaders. During the China-Africa conference, the leaders of 48 of 52 African countries arrived in Beijing. This level of participation was a landmark achievement in diplomatic history, reflecting the fact that China has doubled the amount of its assistance to African nations. Across the continent, China is building highways, railroads and power plants. Soon its contributions to Africa will surpass that of Western nations, and accordingly, China's influence there will also surpass that of the West. For the last ten years, Africa has been the first stop on the overseas trips of China's foreign minister. The Financial Times reported on the possibility of Africa falling under the influence of China.
Even before it turned to Africa, China was working on improving relations with Central Asian countries, another region of untapped natural resources. President Hu Jintao's diplomatic footprints can be found throughout that region. And China has recently set its sights on Latin America, with its diplomatic influence expanding rapidly in Brazil, once a Japanese stronghold.
All of these regions possess abundant reserves of oil, natural gas and other resources. China is nurturing relations to source the raw materials it needs to fuel its charging growth, while reaping the additional benefits of its increasing clout in the global arena. This forward-looking strategy is practical yet unpretentious. China is poised to use the 2008 Beijing Olympics to take a step closer to becoming a power rival of the United States.
Just ten years ago, these changes were unimaginable. Undoubtedly it is China's economic might that has made it possible. In just ten years, China's global ranking in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) shot from seventh place to fourth. The value of China's GDP quadrupled during that time. China is now the world's third-largest exporter and its foreign currency reserves have surpassed the $1 trillion mark after increasing $200 billion annually. This is a record unsurpassed by any country. Its annual research and development spending has outpaced Japan to become the world's second largest. Should China's economy continue growing at the current breakneck speed of 10 percent each year, historian Arnold Toynbee's prophecy will be fulfilled: the 21st century will belong to China. This idea was recently addressed in a special report in Time magazine.
The inspiration for this radical change came from the country's leadership. Over the last decade, first with Jiang Zemin and then Hu Jintao, the dream of developing China into a global leader was planted in the hearts of its 1.3 billion citizens. Today's China is the result of the energy of the entire people of China.
But while China has seen a decade of dawn, for Korea it may represent a premature sunset. An economy that was once half the size of China's is now just a fifth. Korea's growth is stunted, its citizens feeling listless, just as we were approaching the doorsteps of the world's advanced nations. The leaders of five of the 48 African countries who attended China's conference stopped by Korea to attend a mini-forum. A footnote to the real thing: this is the reality facing Korea. It seems like only yesterday that Deng Xiaoping was urging his people to “learn from Korea.” Today, the realities facing the two countries are as different as night and day.
Japan, shocked by China's ascendance, is struggling to reform itself. Change is thundering throughout Asia, but here on the Korean peninsula, our leaders and powerful elite hang on to outdated ideologies, spending their energies on political strategies that divide the people. This is the reality facing Korea today.
